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Tuesday 11 June 2013

USCF rating tests for the Australian Football League

As of the 1924 season, the results of the differences in the USCF rating systems were as follows:

Average rating
Old system = 880.56
New system = 877.44 (-3.12)

Median rating
Old system = 900.00
New system = 896.00 (-4.00)

Logarithmic loss
Old system = 0.245481
New system = 0.245145 (-0.000336)

Mean average error
Old system = 0.368463
New system = 0.367690  (-0.000773)

Root mean squared error
Old system = 0.434205
New system = 0.433855 (-0.000350)

Analysis: The ratings were down, but predicting the results were better.